Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201021 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.90     58.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.4   8.1  17.4  18.2  19.2  17.8  30.2  28.9  F VF  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  84.3  79.6  72.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0   3.0  23.0  -2.0  29.0  15.0  88.0 102.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  41.0  46.0  49.0  48.0  50.0  48.0  48.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -1.0   1.0  11.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       58.6%       28.2%       43.4%
 25kt / 24h       41.2%       53.6%       47.4%
 30kt / 24h       41.2%       53.6%       47.4%
 35kt / 24h       41.2%       53.6%       47.4%
 40kt / 24h       41.2%       53.6%       47.4%
 45kt / 36h       34.2%       20.4%       27.3%
 55kt / 36h       15.4%        9.4%       12.4%
 55kt / 48h        4.6%       10.7%        7.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        3.0%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        1.7%        1.3%