Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201021 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.40     59.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         7.5  13.6  15.9  19.0  22.0  28.2  25.9  29.8 VF  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  59.6  55.1  50.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  18.0  17.0  23.0  22.0  81.0  87.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  46.0  48.0  49.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  48.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   6.0   3.0   5.0   1.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       53.9%       22.2%       38.0%
 25kt / 24h       28.0%       27.1%       27.5%
 30kt / 24h       28.0%       27.1%       27.5%
 35kt / 24h       28.0%       27.1%       27.5%
 40kt / 24h       23.3%       27.1%       25.2%
 45kt / 36h       47.5%       13.3%       30.4%
 55kt / 36h        9.3%        6.5%        7.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%