Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201022 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.50     60.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  15.9  18.6  22.8  19.4  29.9  28.1  22.2  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  59.6  50.7  46.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  17.0  18.0  15.0  40.0  99.0 110.0  80.0  N  U  U  U  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  49.0  49.0  48.0  51.0  50.0  52.0  48.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   6.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   6.0  -4.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       37.8%       14.7%       26.3%
 25kt / 24h       17.7%       18.1%       17.9%
 30kt / 24h       17.7%       16.0%       16.8%
 35kt / 24h       17.7%       16.0%       16.8%
 40kt / 24h       15.3%       16.0%       15.7%
 45kt / 36h       39.7%        9.3%       24.5%
 55kt / 36h        5.7%        4.1%        4.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%