Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201022 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.40     60.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  18.0  21.5  21.8  28.0  28.5  24.1  24.1  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  67.0  55.7  53.6  41.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  -3.0  28.0   9.0  72.0 103.0 100.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  51.0  52.0  50.0  53.0  52.0  49.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   4.0   8.0   9.0   2.0  21.0   4.0  N  N  N  U  U  N VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        1.7%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        3.6%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        2.0%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        2.0%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        2.0%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        7.1%        1.0%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%