Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201022 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.60     61.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  19.1  20.6  18.7  33.1  28.3  18.7  26.2  F  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  77.3  68.6  62.4  -7.9  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0  20.0  18.0  35.0  83.0  89.0  68.0  77.0  U  U  U  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  48.0  51.0  52.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   0.0  26.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VU  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.4%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%