Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201022 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.50     61.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  19.6  23.2  28.2  31.5  24.5  18.8  34.3  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  84.3  79.6  72.9  70.7  51.2 -26.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  14.0  38.0  70.0  57.0  77.0  39.0 118.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  49.0  55.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   6.0   4.0   9.0   1.0  16.0   8.0 -16.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        1.8%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        5.1%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        3.3%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        3.3%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        3.3%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        0.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%