Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201023 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.20     61.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  21.9  29.1  36.5  28.6  18.8  22.5  30.4  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  87.0  84.6  80.1  73.6  58.0 -18.4 -23.9  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  35.0  49.0  69.0  94.0  35.0  77.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  51.0  56.0  60.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   4.0   7.0   3.0   5.0   0.0 -11.0  -4.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.4%        2.9%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        6.2%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        4.0%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%        4.0%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        4.0%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%        1.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%