Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201023 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.80     61.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  28.7  38.4  32.7  26.2  18.4  30.8  38.1  N  N  U  U  N  F  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.3  84.6  80.1  75.7  69.4  35.8 -24.4 -27.7  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  47.0  79.0  88.0  85.0  58.0  96.0  95.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  51.0  49.0  53.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   7.0   3.0   0.0  16.0   6.0 -28.0 -84.0  N  N  N  N  U  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.5%        3.1%        5.3%
 25kt / 24h        3.0%        5.4%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        3.0%        3.5%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%        3.5%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        3.5%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%        1.1%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%