Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201023 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.60     61.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  36.8  32.6  27.7  17.9  29.9  38.6  49.7  N  U  U  N  F  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.6  80.1  75.7  73.6  61.6 -15.3 -22.4 -28.8  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  71.0  85.0  81.0  50.0  73.0 112.0  61.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  52.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   2.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   9.0 -10.0  45.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  F VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.8%        1.8%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%        4.5%        3.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        2.5%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        2.5%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        2.5%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%        1.3%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%