Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201024 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.00     62.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.2  29.2  23.3  20.4  24.0  34.0  40.0  49.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.7  76.5  76.5  66.6  -5.9 -15.7 -23.8 -22.8  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  95.0  82.0  95.0  46.0  85.0  45.0  30.0  F  F  N  F  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  60.0  62.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0  -5.0   0.0   1.0 -15.0  22.0 -17.0  N  N  F  N  N VF VU VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        0.6%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        3.1%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.3%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        1.3%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%