Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201024 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.80     62.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  21.9  22.3  22.2  33.7  34.7  67.2  67.2  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.5  79.4  69.8  62.7 -11.3 -16.4 -18.5 -18.5  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  93.0  74.0  56.0 104.0  89.0  43.0  43.0  N  F  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  56.0  59.0  55.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   7.0  -5.0 -12.0 -28.0 -42.0 -76.0 -76.0  N  N  F  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons