Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201024 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.30     61.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  22.0  19.8  26.3  35.4  64.8  52.7  52.7  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.7  70.5  64.8  15.0 -14.1 -23.3 -22.5 -22.5  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   123.0  86.0  59.0  49.0  80.0 102.0  37.0  37.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  49.0  55.0  49.0  52.0  55.0  51.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  -1.0   6.0   3.0 -25.0 -72.0 -29.0 -29.0  U  N  N  N VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        1.0%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.3%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        0.5%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        0.5%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons