Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201024 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.60     59.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  16.6  20.8  27.5  26.5  45.0  41.5  41.5  N  F  N  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.5  66.6   0.8 -13.4 -21.0 -23.5 -25.0 -25.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  50.0  36.0 105.0  83.0 -22.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  F  N VU  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  56.0  57.0  53.0  58.0  60.0  53.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   8.0 -21.0 -29.0 -34.0  16.0  16.0  N  N  U VF VF VF  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.6%        2.6%        5.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.0%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons