Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201025 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.40     57.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  22.6  25.1  29.2  63.4  47.1  14.5  14.5  N  N  N  N VU VU  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         51.5   0.7 -12.1 -11.6 -18.9 -18.3 -21.1 -21.1  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  60.0 100.0  76.0  87.0  41.0  51.0  51.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  53.0  51.0  53.0  58.0  62.0  51.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   8.0 -15.0  -2.0 -68.0  20.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  U VF  N VF VU  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons