Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201025 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     42.10     55.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  32.5  30.7  35.6  46.9  37.1  37.1  37.1  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -1.3 -13.9 -13.5 -15.8 -19.1 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  96.0  82.0  94.0   0.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  N  F  N  F  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  44.0  49.0  52.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U VU  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -5.0  -1.0 -49.0 -56.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  N  F  N VF VF VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons