Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201025 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     43.20     51.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  31.4  34.8  45.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  N  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        -11.0 -10.4 -15.5 -19.2 -18.6 -18.6 -18.6 -18.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0  89.0  84.0  39.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  49.0  51.0  54.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  59.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  27.0  -4.0 -24.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  U VU  F VF  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons