Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL272020 201025 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     45.00     46.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  33.5  42.9  38.4  16.7  16.7  16.7  16.7  N  U VU  U  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -5.7 -10.3 -14.4 -14.1 -15.3 -15.3 -15.3 -15.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  75.0  26.0   4.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  F  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  54.0  59.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   5.0 -12.0 -16.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  U  N  F VF  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons