Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201031 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90     72.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.2  11.1   9.7   9.3  16.3  14.0  17.6  15.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  82.0  82.0  67.0  53.0  41.0  39.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  56.0  53.0  99.0 108.0 155.0 166.0 177.0  N  N  N  F  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  80.0  79.0  80.0  82.0  84.0  85.0  82.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        9.5%        6.5%
 25kt / 24h       29.6%       59.2%       44.4%
 30kt / 24h       17.3%       41.7%       29.5%
 35kt / 24h        7.0%       41.7%       24.3%
 40kt / 24h        4.9%       41.7%       23.3%
 45kt / 36h       34.4%       71.4%       52.9%
 55kt / 36h       25.5%       53.0%       39.2%
 55kt / 48h       51.1%       61.8%       56.5%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       58.4%       41.6%
 65kt / 72h       62.4%       76.8%       69.6%