Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201101 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90     73.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.0  10.3   8.1  12.7  14.6  22.3  22.9  23.5  F  F VF  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   83.0  82.0  72.0  57.0  47.0  39.0  41.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 129.3 129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  60.0 103.0 125.0 125.0 168.0 210.0 201.0  N  N  F  F  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  79.0  80.0  83.0  85.0  87.0  85.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   5.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.7%       10.5%       10.1%
 25kt / 24h       34.6%       55.1%       44.9%
 30kt / 24h       25.0%       42.8%       33.9%
 35kt / 24h       13.4%       42.8%       28.1%
 40kt / 24h       13.4%       42.8%       28.1%
 45kt / 36h       43.2%       64.4%       53.8%
 55kt / 36h       32.2%       43.5%       37.9%
 55kt / 48h       51.1%       50.6%       50.8%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       45.1%       34.9%
 65kt / 72h       62.4%       61.7%       62.0%