Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201101 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10     75.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.0   8.4  13.6  14.4  19.9  19.9  27.5  19.2 VF  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  72.0  58.0  52.0  41.0  41.0  36.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 129.3 129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  98.0 105.0 116.0 183.0 170.0 211.0 158.0  N  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  81.0  83.0  85.0  85.0  83.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0   3.0   8.0   3.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.7%       13.3%       10.0%
 25kt / 24h       37.2%       61.2%       49.2%
 30kt / 24h       21.5%       44.7%       33.1%
 35kt / 24h       10.8%       44.7%       27.7%
 40kt / 24h       10.8%       44.7%       27.7%
 45kt / 36h       38.4%       69.0%       53.7%
 55kt / 36h       25.6%       47.8%       36.7%
 55kt / 48h       51.1%       56.5%       53.8%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       48.0%       36.4%
 65kt / 72h       62.4%       63.0%       62.7%