Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201101 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80     76.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         7.9  14.4  14.0  12.5  22.7  22.9  27.2  22.8 VF  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  54.0  49.0  44.0  37.0  38.0  39.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.3 129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   114.0 118.0 121.0 129.0 162.0 200.0 190.0 108.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  82.0  84.0  84.0  85.0  84.0  85.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        6.4%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h       23.5%       47.7%       35.6%
 30kt / 24h       12.7%       30.3%       21.5%
 35kt / 24h        5.8%       30.3%       18.1%
 40kt / 24h        5.8%       30.3%       18.1%
 45kt / 36h       29.2%       51.8%       40.5%
 55kt / 36h       15.8%       27.0%       21.4%
 55kt / 48h       48.7%       43.6%       46.2%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       29.8%       27.2%
 65kt / 72h       58.8%       46.5%       52.7%