Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201101 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90     78.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.4  14.4  15.4  19.3  24.0  25.1  25.1  22.5  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  47.0  42.0  39.0  41.0  35.0  11.0   5.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.3 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   120.0 111.0 105.0 120.0 132.0 185.0 149.0 151.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  83.0  82.0  85.0  83.0  83.0  84.0  82.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   2.0   5.0   6.0   6.0   3.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       46.5%       45.4%       45.9%
 25kt / 24h       75.5%       86.1%       80.8%
 30kt / 24h       65.0%       84.5%       74.7%
 35kt / 24h       50.4%       84.5%       67.4%
 40kt / 24h       48.1%       84.5%       66.3%
 45kt / 36h       58.9%       82.7%       70.8%
 55kt / 36h       36.3%       71.6%       53.9%
 55kt / 48h       50.9%       65.4%       58.1%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       56.4%       40.5%
 65kt / 72h       32.7%       51.5%       42.1%