Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201102 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90     79.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.6  16.1  20.8  21.9  23.3  22.2  17.2  23.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  40.0  38.0  40.0  36.0  31.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   118.0 110.0 129.0 135.0 192.0 166.0 131.0 100.0  F  F  F VF VF VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  83.0  82.0  81.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   5.0   4.0   5.0   2.0   1.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       66.4%       54.6%       60.5%
 25kt / 24h       81.4%       87.2%       84.3%
 30kt / 24h       77.1%       87.2%       82.2%
 35kt / 24h       72.6%       87.2%       79.9%
 40kt / 24h       72.6%       87.2%       79.9%
 45kt / 36h       69.5%       80.2%       74.9%
 55kt / 36h       41.1%       67.2%       54.2%
 55kt / 48h       49.9%       63.7%       56.8%
 70kt / 48h       24.6%       48.9%       36.7%
 65kt / 72h       22.6%       42.1%       32.3%