Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201102 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90     80.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     65.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  20.2  22.1  21.3  25.6  21.3  18.1  17.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  39.0  39.0  38.0  37.0   7.0  14.0  22.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0 117.0 128.0 147.0 182.0 132.0 108.0 102.0  F  F  F VF VF  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  84.0  84.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  81.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       61.8%       45.8%       53.8%
 25kt / 24h       76.8%       82.9%       79.8%
 30kt / 24h       73.6%       82.9%       78.3%
 35kt / 24h       73.6%       82.9%       78.3%
 40kt / 24h       73.6%       82.9%       78.3%
 45kt / 36h       59.6%       69.9%       64.7%
 55kt / 36h       31.7%       51.6%       41.6%
 55kt / 48h       41.7%       54.3%       48.0%
 70kt / 48h       14.4%       32.3%       23.3%
 65kt / 72h       14.4%       29.5%       21.9%