Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201102 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80     81.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  21.6  22.1  24.4  21.6  17.9  18.3  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  37.0  39.0  36.0  37.0   7.0  12.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   132.0 156.0 166.0 180.0 144.0  77.0  91.0 119.0  F VF VF VF VF  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  84.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  82.0  81.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   7.0   5.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       77.7%       46.9%       62.3%
 25kt / 24h       88.6%       78.8%       83.7%
 30kt / 24h       88.6%       78.8%       83.7%
 35kt / 24h       88.6%       78.8%       83.7%
 40kt / 24h       88.6%       78.8%       83.7%
 45kt / 36h       82.5%       60.1%       71.3%
 55kt / 36h       33.4%       41.1%       37.2%
 55kt / 48h       33.7%       34.7%       34.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        7.2%       15.4%       11.3%