Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201102 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70     82.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    45.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  22.9  24.4  23.6  20.9  19.0  19.5  15.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  36.0  35.0  37.0  30.0   4.0  23.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   155.0 166.0 174.0 156.0 129.0 127.0  91.0  94.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  81.0  81.0  80.0  83.0  83.0  81.0  82.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   5.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       56.4%       16.9%       36.6%
 25kt / 24h       46.5%       31.8%       39.2%
 30kt / 24h       36.0%       25.0%       30.5%
 35kt / 24h       36.0%       25.0%       30.5%
 40kt / 24h       36.0%       19.9%       27.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%