Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201103 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     82.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  22.8  24.4  24.6  20.7  22.8  19.8  21.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  36.0  35.0  37.0   6.0  37.0  36.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   150.0 176.0 146.0 159.0 120.0 128.0  54.0  74.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  82.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  83.0  76.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  10.0   6.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       39.5%        8.4%       24.0%
 25kt / 24h       25.0%       13.3%       19.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%