Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201103 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00     82.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  20.4  20.8  19.3  16.4  16.8  22.3  22.5  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  37.0  37.0  12.0   5.0  34.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   170.0 129.0 129.0 119.0 131.0 139.0  95.0  84.0 VF  F  F  F  F VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  81.0  82.0  82.0  79.0  76.0  82.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   2.0   1.0  -2.0   4.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       38.2%       10.1%       24.1%
 25kt / 24h       26.6%       17.0%       21.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%