Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201103 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60     83.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  22.7  18.2  15.8  16.6  19.8  18.1  16.5  N  N  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  40.0  20.0   5.0   5.0  24.0  45.0  46.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   160.0 153.0 112.0 107.0 133.0  73.0 114.0 120.0 VF VF  F  F VF  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  77.0  83.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        1.5%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%        4.6%        4.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        0.9%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%