Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201103 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70     83.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  18.0  16.1  17.2  18.8  14.4  17.9  26.0  N  F  F  F  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  37.0   8.0   5.0  35.0  41.0  46.0  41.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   170.0 130.0 133.0 143.0 131.0 105.0 115.0 160.0 VF  F VF VF  F  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  83.0  82.0  83.0  80.0  76.0  80.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0  -1.0  -4.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        0.8%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        3.1%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        1.5%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%