Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201104 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     83.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  20.7  19.4  17.9  17.4  16.2  27.1  32.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0   8.0   7.0  27.0  39.0  41.0  45.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   139.0 151.0 139.0 158.0 118.0 107.0 155.0 167.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  78.0  83.0  79.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -3.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        5.9%        0.4%        3.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        2.2%        1.1%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%