Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201104 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     84.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -50.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  21.8  19.3  16.7  14.9  15.8  32.4  35.5  N  N  N  F  F  F  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   7.0  10.0  38.0  47.0  43.0  55.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   156.0 164.0 156.0 157.0  81.0 126.0 182.0 117.0 VF VF VF VF  N  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  82.0  81.0  81.0  76.0  78.0  75.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        2.0%        1.6%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h       21.9%        0.3%       11.1%