Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201104 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     84.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -45.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  19.6  23.0  20.2  20.5  24.4  33.5  43.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0  13.0  34.0  37.0  41.0  44.0  88.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   147.0 148.0 131.0 111.0  69.0 104.0 142.0  71.0 VF VF  F  F  N  F VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  82.0  82.0  80.0  83.0  79.0  76.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   8.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   1.0   2.0  -1.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h       17.8%        0.5%        9.1%