Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201104 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     85.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  22.8  17.9  14.9  17.0  34.1  35.9  52.8  N  N  F  F  F  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   8.0  37.0  38.0  41.0  77.0  74.0  80.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   151.0 141.0 138.0  99.0 121.0 170.0 118.0 120.0 VF VF VF  F  F VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  84.0  82.0  83.0  81.0  77.0  74.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   6.0   2.0  -1.0   1.0   8.0   7.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        4.9%        2.6%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.2%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h       28.1%        1.4%       14.7%