Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201105 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00     86.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  19.3  16.6  13.1  28.8  37.4  44.4  50.8  N  N  F  F  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0  34.0  37.0  39.0  67.0  79.0  78.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   162.0 160.0  85.0  98.0 119.0 113.0  94.0  69.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  80.0  77.0  73.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   8.0   1.0   8.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.7%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        3.4%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        7.8%        4.5%        6.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.3%        1.0%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h       27.2%        3.2%       15.2%