Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201105 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20     86.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  13.7  14.4  18.0  30.9  34.9  42.7  44.3  F  F  F  F  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  38.0  40.0  50.0  73.0  74.0  78.0  82.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   163.0 155.0 128.0 113.0 140.0 106.0  90.0  73.0 VF VF  F  F VF  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  82.0  84.0  81.0  79.0  79.0  75.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -1.0   2.0   4.0   5.0   7.0   9.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        9.7%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.9%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.9%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        4.7%        9.3%        7.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        1.8%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h       15.8%        7.9%       11.9%
 70kt / 48h        7.5%        2.7%        5.1%
 65kt / 72h       37.8%        6.8%       22.3%