Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201105 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70     87.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  16.2  20.0  26.9  37.8  42.6  45.5  45.2  F  F  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  37.0  44.0  66.0  81.0  72.0  80.0  47.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    94.0 150.0 127.0 145.0 102.0 112.0  45.0  53.0  F VF  F VF  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  83.0  81.0  81.0  79.0  75.0  74.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   5.0   6.0   2.0   5.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%       11.4%        7.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        3.1%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        3.1%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.1%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        4.2%       11.9%        8.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        2.4%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h       11.9%        6.3%        9.1%
 70kt / 48h        6.8%        2.9%        4.8%
 65kt / 72h       25.0%        5.8%       15.4%