Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201105 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50     87.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  25.9  30.2  34.7  41.5  43.7  42.1  41.8  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  51.0  73.0  90.0  74.0  76.0  78.0  41.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   143.0 141.0 176.0 149.0  96.0  72.0  43.0  40.0 VF VF VF VF  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  81.0  80.0  78.0  77.0  72.0  67.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   7.0   5.0  10.0  11.0  14.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        2.7%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h       12.0%       22.7%       17.3%
 30kt / 24h        5.3%        7.6%        6.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        7.6%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        7.6%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h        9.4%       20.8%       15.1%
 55kt / 36h        3.6%        5.3%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h       11.8%        7.2%        9.5%
 70kt / 48h        7.1%        4.2%        5.7%
 65kt / 72h       19.1%        6.8%       12.9%