Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201106 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20     87.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  34.0  35.7  40.7  48.5  42.3  45.6  34.4  N  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  95.0  82.0  75.0  76.0  74.0  42.0  34.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   144.0 164.0 180.0 141.0 126.0  81.0  82.0  67.0 VF VF VF VF  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  71.0  70.0  62.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   5.0   2.0   7.0  15.0  24.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.9%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h       10.2%       16.5%       13.4%
 30kt / 24h        4.0%        4.3%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        4.3%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        4.3%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        5.3%       12.7%        9.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        2.8%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        7.9%        4.8%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        5.8%        2.7%        4.2%
 65kt / 72h       19.4%        5.0%       12.2%