Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201106 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     87.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.8  37.2  40.5  46.1  44.8  47.5  46.0  28.6  U  U  U VU VU VU VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   90.0  88.0  74.0  74.0  81.0  42.0  32.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   155.0 173.0 172.0 158.0  85.0  88.0  44.0  41.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  74.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  69.0  64.0  61.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   4.0   7.0  15.0  22.0  25.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.9%        9.1%        7.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        1.8%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%        6.6%        4.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.6%        2.5%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        1.0%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        9.7%        2.4%        6.0%