Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201106 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60     87.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.3  40.2  44.3  46.8  46.8  51.5  48.5  18.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   90.0  75.0  70.0  75.0  91.0  37.0  23.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  F  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   194.0 180.0 162.0 120.0  84.0  73.0  57.0   6.0 VF VF VF  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  64.0  63.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   9.0   7.0  17.0  30.0  22.0   6.0  N  N  U  N  U VU VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        8.1%       13.3%       10.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        3.5%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.5%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.2%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%       11.0%        6.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        3.0%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        6.9%        2.8%        4.9%