Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201106 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10     87.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.7  38.4  44.3  44.1  48.9  44.6  41.2  17.6  U  U VU VU VU VU VU  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   85.0  75.0  69.0  76.0  92.0  40.0  52.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   194.0 156.0 127.0 100.0  60.0  87.0  39.0  11.0 VF VF  F  F  N  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  76.0  75.0  69.0  61.0  59.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  10.0   7.0  11.0  15.0  23.0   8.0   7.0  U  U  N  U  U VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.5%        7.2%        5.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        5.2%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        1.9%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        0.7%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h       12.2%        3.2%        7.7%