Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201107 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70     85.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.2  39.5  42.6  44.4  42.9  38.5  15.9  17.9  U  U VU VU VU  U  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  68.0  85.0  91.0  54.0  35.0   1.0  14.0  N  N  N  F  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   147.0 136.0 124.0 101.0  88.0  44.0   6.0  37.0 VF VF  F  F  F  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  67.0  62.0  58.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   6.0  12.0  14.0  20.0   4.0   7.0   5.0  N  N  U  U VU  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.8%        6.3%        4.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        5.1%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        2.2%        2.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        0.8%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h       13.3%        5.0%        9.1%