Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201107 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00     85.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.1  42.6  42.4  45.2  38.5  28.2  21.7  27.0  U VU VU VU  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  77.0  86.0  91.0  45.0  20.0  18.0  27.0  N  N  N  F  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   128.0 135.0 103.0  83.0  67.0  77.0  40.0   3.0  F VF  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  73.0  69.0  62.0  55.0  48.0  44.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  10.0  10.0  24.0  17.0   7.0   7.0   0.0  N  U  U VU  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.2%        7.4%        5.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.6%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        6.7%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.2%        3.5%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        1.4%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h       15.3%        6.8%       11.1%