Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201107 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20     83.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.6  43.2  44.4  37.9  36.1  11.3  14.5  21.5 VU VU VU  U  U  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   84.0  85.0  63.0  35.0  29.0  29.0   0.0  16.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   121.0 119.0  91.0  97.0 102.0  16.0   0.0 -14.0  F  F  F  F  F  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  70.0  69.0  65.0  66.0  61.0  52.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  17.0  29.0  23.0   4.0   5.0   4.0   0.0  U  U VU VU  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        6.8%        4.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        7.0%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.2%        5.1%        4.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        2.0%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        8.9%        8.3%        8.6%