Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201107 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00     81.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.7  47.0  37.8  27.9  27.6  13.1  22.6  14.5 VU VU  U  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  35.0  32.0  30.0  31.0   0.0   9.0  18.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   108.0 108.0  66.0 110.0  -1.0  11.0 -19.0   6.0  F  F  N  F  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  71.0  70.0  65.0  69.0  66.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  20.0  15.0  13.0  10.0   6.0   5.0   0.0  N VU  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.9%        5.3%        9.6%
 25kt / 24h       29.7%       33.3%       31.5%
 30kt / 24h       16.0%       18.3%       17.1%
 35kt / 24h       11.6%       18.3%       15.0%
 40kt / 24h        8.7%       14.8%       11.7%
 45kt / 36h       12.8%       30.1%       21.5%
 55kt / 36h        4.7%       11.8%        8.3%
 55kt / 48h        7.3%       15.1%       11.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        7.8%        4.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%       11.2%        6.4%