Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201108 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40     80.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.2  33.7  27.5  23.3  16.3  14.7  22.7  21.1 VU  U  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  34.0  31.0  29.0   9.0  11.0  17.0  16.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  73.0  87.0 111.0   4.0 -30.0  -3.0 -13.0  N  N  F  F  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  70.0  66.0  64.0  68.0  63.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.0  20.0  15.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   0.0  -1.0 VU VU  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.4%        4.2%        8.8%
 25kt / 24h       23.5%       27.4%       25.5%
 30kt / 24h       15.9%       14.7%       15.3%
 35kt / 24h       12.2%       14.7%       13.4%
 40kt / 24h        9.9%       14.7%       12.3%
 45kt / 36h       15.5%       23.7%       19.6%
 55kt / 36h        6.5%        8.8%        7.6%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%       12.7%        9.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        5.0%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        6.2%        3.5%