Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201108 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90     79.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.1  28.7  27.1  23.8  17.5  22.3  20.0  29.6  U  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  33.0  32.0  23.0  18.0  36.0  47.0  31.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  86.0  95.0 -11.0  -8.0  -9.0  -7.0 -18.0  N  F  F  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  62.0  58.0  59.0  57.0  55.0  56.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.0  15.0   6.0   2.0   1.0   4.0  -1.0   4.0 VU  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.4%        2.2%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h        8.2%       14.6%       11.4%
 30kt / 24h        5.3%        6.4%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%        6.4%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.9%        6.4%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h        7.2%       11.1%        9.1%
 55kt / 36h        2.4%        3.1%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.8%        7.3%        5.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        1.9%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        3.7%        3.0%