Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201108 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90     79.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  31.2  26.7  16.6  17.2  19.4  19.7  26.4  N  U  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  26.0   9.0  15.0  40.0  87.0  75.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0 119.0  -4.0  -7.0 -32.0 -11.0 -11.0 -21.0  N  F  U  U VU  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0   8.0   4.0  -2.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   5.0 VU  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        8.8%        5.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        3.5%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        3.5%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        3.1%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%        6.5%        4.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        3.5%        6.6%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        5.5%        4.3%        4.9%