Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL292020 201108 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50     79.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.7  27.0  18.3  16.7  18.8  19.3  30.2  25.7  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0   0.0  14.0  38.0  99.0  36.0  28.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  F  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0   2.0 -10.0  -8.0 -14.0  -6.0  -5.0   0.0  F  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  54.0  57.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   1.0  -4.0  -4.0   1.0   0.0   4.0   0.0  U  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        1.1%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        8.3%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        4.3%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        4.3%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        4.3%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        5.2%        6.0%        5.6%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%        1.6%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        6.1%        5.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        1.4%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        3.5%        2.6%        3.0%